Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region is in early stages of a transition towards decarbonization that will have a significant impact on the automotive manufacturing sector. Production processes and supply chains have already begun to shift their focus from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs).

Occupation impacts are influenced by the characteristics and timing of the transition. For some occupations (such as electronics assemblers), the number of needed workers and the tasks that they perform is very closely tied to the type of vehicle being produced. Those occupations will be significantly impacted by the ICEV-EV transition. Other occupations (such as computer network technicians) may experience relatively moderate or little impact if the tasks that they perform are not associated with the type of vehicle produced. Therefore, it is important to examine occupation-level impacts so that industries can ensure that they have the right number of workers with the right skills throughout the transition.

This report explores the labour market impact of the ICEV-EV transition in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region for 67 occupations in 49 industries, across a forecast horizon from 2025 to 2040. The term ‘recruitment gap’ is the primary indicator of occupation-level impacts in this report. The recruitment gap is a measure that captures labour market supply and demand dynamics that evolve during the forecast period. Because occupational demand is contingent on the number and type of vehicles being produced, a specific base case production scenario was defined as the context for the analysis. Demographic trends (which influence the entrance of young workers and exit of older workers from the labour force) and immigration were also incorporated into the analysis.

Results of the analysis, for the Golden Horseshoe region, focuses on 17 occupations that are expected to experience significant impacts during the transition. The magnitude and timing of impacts are unique for each occupation. For example, in the Golden Horseshoe region, a large recruitment gap is expected to occur consistently for occupations such as manufacturing managers, motor vehicle assemblers, and construction millwrights/industrial mechanics. Most of the large recruitment gaps increase as the transition gains momentum with a peak between 2031 and 2035, and then gradually drop until 2040.