Canada is in early stages of a transition towards decarbonization that will have a significant impact on the automotive manufacturing sector. Production processes and supply chains have already begun to shift their focus from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs).

Occupation impacts are influenced by the characteristics and timing of the transition. For some occupations (such as electronics assemblers), the number of needed workers and the tasks that they perform is very closely tied to the type of vehicle being produced. Those occupations will be significantly impacted by the ICEV-EV transition. Other occupations (such as computer network technicians) may experience relatively moderate or little impact if the tasks that they perform are not associated with the type of vehicle produced. Therefore, it is important to examine occupation-level impacts so that industries can ensure that they have the right number of workers with the right skills throughout the transition.

This report explores the labour market impact of the ICE-EV transition in Canada for 68 occupations in 49 industries, across a forecast horizon from 2025 to 2040. The term ‘recruitment gap’ is the primary indicator of occupation-level impacts in this report. The recruitment gap is a measure that captures labour market supply and demand dynamics that evolve during the forecast period. Because occupational demand is contingent on the number and type of vehicles being produced, a specific base case production scenario was defined as the context for the analysis. Demographic trends (which influence the entrance of young workers and exit of older workers from the labour force) and immigration were also incorporated into the analysis. Results of the analysis indicate that several occupations are expected to experience significant impacts during the transition. The magnitude and timing of impacts are unique for each occupation. For example, at the national level a large recruitment gap is expected to occur consistently for occupations such as manufacturing managers, motor vehicle assemblers, and construction millwrights/industrial mechanics. Large recruitment gaps are expected to occur towards the beginning of the forecast horizon and gradually dissipate for occupations such as industrial electricians, electronics/electrical product manufacturing supervisors, and electrical/electronics engineering technologists and technicians. Recruitment gaps are expected to peak in the middle of the transition period for occupations such as mechanical engineering technologists and technicians, machining tool operators, and industrial painters. In other words, employers throughout the supply chain will face recruitment pressures that are occupationally specific and timed to different phases of the ICEV-EV transition.