The Eastern Ontario region is in early stages of the transition towards decarbonization that will have a significant impact on the automotive manufacturing sector across Ontario. Production processes and supply chains have already begun to shift their focus from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs).

Occupation impacts are influenced by the characteristics and timing of the transition. For some occupations (such as vehicle assemblers), the number of needed workers and the tasks that they perform is very closely tied to the type of vehicle being produced. Those occupations will be significantly impacted by the ICEV-EV transition. Other occupations (such as computer network technicians) may experience relatively moderate or little impact if the tasks that they perform are not associated with the type of vehicle produced. Therefore, it is important to examine occupation-level impacts so that industries can ensure that they have the right number of workers with the right skills throughout the transition.

This report explores the labour market impact of the ICEV-EV transition in the Eastern Ontario region for 51 occupations in 49 industries, across a forecast horizon from 2025 to 2040. The term ‘recruitment gap’ is the primary indicator of occupation-level impacts in this report. The recruitment gap measures labour market supply and demand dynamics that evolve during the forecast period. Because occupational demand is contingent on the number and type of vehicles being produced, a specific base case production scenario was defined as the context for the analysis. Demographic trends (which influence the entrance of young workers and exit of older workers from the labour force) and immigration were also incorporated into the analysis.

Results of the analysis indicate that several occupations will experience impacts during the transition. The magnitude and timing of impacts are unique for each occupation. Eastern Ontario will experience limited impacts from the ICEV-EV transition because there are no assembly or new battery plants in the region. There are some limited indirect impacts in regional manufacturers who supply parts and components. There will also be pressures as employers in other Ontario regions recruit key occupations in short supply. FOCAL II results identify six specific cases where these pressures are apparent. Readers will find more details on the source and likely timing of these competitive pressures in FOCAL II reports covering regional occupational impacts in Golden Horseshoe, Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie, London and Windsor-Sarnia.