Manitoba and the Winnipeg region are in the early stages of a transition to decarbonization that will have a significant impact on heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing and related industries. Production processes and supply chains have begun to shift their focus from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs). 

FOCAL II has created a national, provincial and regional methodology for assessing the occupational and labour market impacts of this transition. This report considers the findings of this analysis and the implications for Manitoba and the Winnipeg region. Impacts are influenced by the characteristics and timing of the transition. For some occupations (such as vehicle assemblers), the number of needed workers and the tasks that they perform is very closely tied to the type of vehicle being produced. Those occupations will be significantly impacted by the ICEV-EV transition. Other occupations may experience relatively moderate or little impact if the tasks that they perform are not associated with the type of vehicle produced. Assessing occupation-level impacts can ensure that labour markets have the right number of workers with the right skills throughout the transition.

This report explores the labour market impact of the ICEV-EV transition in Manitoba and the Winnipeg region, considering up to 45 occupations in 49 industries, across a forecast horizon from 2025 to 2040 (the analysis for Manitoba includes 45 occupations and the analysis for the Winnipeg region includes 40 occupations). The analysis measures a ‘recruitment gap’ as the primary indicator of occupation-level impacts in this report. The recruitment gap incorporates labour market supply and demand dynamics that evolve across the transition. Because occupational demand is contingent on the number and type of vehicles being produced, a specific base case production scenario was defined as the context for the analysis. Demographic trends (which influence the entrance of young workers and exit of older workers from the labour force) and immigration were also incorporated into the analysis. 

The FOCAL II process begins with announced plans for investments in new or reorganized production in vehicle assembly, battery production and the related supply chains. Results in each region identify occupations that will experience significant impacts. The magnitude and timing of impacts are unique for each occupation. Manitoba has not seen any new investment announcements yet, but the province is already a center for heavy-duty vehicle assembly and parts manufacturers. This role is certain to continue as many key employers adapt to the ICEV-EV transition. Other regions of Canada have new investments in assembly, battery production and their suppliers. As these changes begin in Manitoba, the pattern of investment and related labour market change will be reflected in local occupational impacts. Specific impacts are apparent in occupation groups like management and supervision, skilled trades, engineering and related technicians and assemblers in motor vehicles, electrical and electronics and chemical production. This report assesses current and expected labour market conditions in Manitoba and the Winnipeg region, and determines local occupations and labour markets where skills shortages and training challenges can be expected as the ICEV-EV transition takes hold in Manitoba and the Winnipeg area.