Quebec and the Montreal region are at the center and in the early stages of the transition towards decarbonization that will have a significant impact on the heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing and related industries. Production processes and supply chains have begun to shift their focus from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs). 

Occupation impacts are influenced by the characteristics and timing of the transition. For some occupations (such as vehicle assemblers), the number of needed workers and the tasks that they perform is very closely tied to the type of vehicle being produced. Those occupations will be significantly impacted by the ICEV-EV transition. Other occupations may experience relatively moderate or limited impact if the tasks that they perform are not associated with the type of vehicle produced. Therefore, it is important to examine occupation-level impacts so that industries can ensure that they have the right number of workers with the right skills throughout the transition.

This report explores the labour market impact of the ICEV-EV transition in the Montreal area for 63 occupations in 49 industries, across a forecast horizon from 2025 to 2040. The term ‘recruitment gap’ is the primary indicator of occupation-level impacts in this report. The recruitment gap measures labour market supply and demand dynamics that evolve across the transition. Because occupational demand is contingent on the number and type of vehicles being produced, a specific base case production scenario was defined as the context for the analysis. Demographic trends (which influence the entrance of young workers and exit of older workers from the labour force) and immigration were also incorporated into the analysis.  

Results for Montreal indicate that at least six occupations that will experience significant impacts;

• electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians,
• tool and diemakers,
• chemical plant machine operators,
• motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers, and
• electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers.

The magnitude and timing of impacts are unique for each occupation. Quebec and Montreal are already a center for heavy-duty vehicle assembly and parts manufacturers. This role is certain to continue as many key employers have announced investments in the ICEV-EV transition.  Quebec and Montreal have had notable success in attracting new investments in both battery production and major suppliers of anode, cathode, graphite and mineral materials.  This pattern of investment is reflected in the occupational impacts where managers, supervisors, technicians and assemblers in electrical and electronics and chemical production are tagged as candidates for recruiting challenges.  Readers will find more details on the source and likely timing of these competitive pressures in other national, provincial, and regional FOCAL II reports.