The Windsor-Sarnia region of Ontario is at the center and in the early stages of the transition towards decarbonization that will have a significant impact on the automotive manufacturing sector across Ontario. Production processes and supply chains have already begun to shift their focus from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs).

Occupation impacts are influenced by the characteristics and timing of the transition. For some occupations (such as vehicle assemblers), the number of needed workers and the tasks that they perform is very closely tied to the type of vehicle being produced. Those occupations will be significantly impacted by the ICEV-EV transition. Other occupations (such as computer network technicians) may experience relatively moderate or little impact if the tasks that they perform are not associated with the type of vehicle produced. Therefore, it is important to examine occupation-level impacts so that industries can ensure that they have the right number of workers with the right skills throughout the transition.

This report explores the labour market impact of the ICEV-EV transition in the Windsor-Sarnia region for 44 occupations in 49 industries, across a forecast horizon from 2025 to 2040. The term ‘recruitment gap’ is the primary indicator of occupation-level impacts in this report. The recruitment gap measures labour market supply and demand dynamics that evolve during the forecast period. Because occupational demand is contingent on the number and type of vehicles being produced, a specific base case production scenario was defined as the context for the analysis. Demographic trends (which influence the entrance of young workers and exit of older workers from the labour force) and immigration were also incorporated into the analysis.

Results for the Windsor-Sarnia region indicate that several key occupations will experience impacts during the transition. The magnitude and timing of impacts are unique for each occupation. Windsor-Sarnia is already a key center for vehicle assembly and parts manufacturers. This role is certain to continue as many key employers have announced investments in the ICEVEV transition including adapting major assembly and adding new battery plants. Windsor–Sarnia is a relatively small region and the impacts on some occupations will be dramatic when compared to other regional economies. Readers will find more details on the source and likely timing of these competitive pressures in FOCAL II reports covering regional occupational impacts in Eastern Ontario, Golden Horseshoe, Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie and London-Stratford-Bruce Peninsula.