The FOCAL project team published baseline labour market forecasts for Quebec’s FOCAL Automotive Production Industry in Spring 2020.

This report expands the scope of that work by exploring detailed provincial labour market forecasts for scenarios where national motor vehicle production, consisting of light-duty vehicles, buses, and heavy-duty trucks, either increases (upside) or decreases (downside) by 20% from the baseline forecast. Labour market outlooks are contrasted between the baseline and alternative production scenarios, in the process offering valuable insights for industry players, policymakers, and other key stakeholders. Highlights of the report’s outlooks include:

• Employment in Quebec’s FOCAL Automotive Production Industry is projected to range from an estimated 14,800 workers by 2030 in the downside scenario to 18,230 workers in the upside scenario. In the baseline scenario, employment was projected to reach 16,570 workers by 2030. Unsurprisingly, the largest impacts are seen within the vehicle assembly industry group, where employment ranged from 19% above to 20% below the baseline by 2030. Significant employment impacts are also projected for vehicle parts manufacturing but are limited by the high rate of exports in these industries, as well as for other primary automotive suppliers associated with metals.